Bernstein's headline numbers are already making the rounds, they expect Bitcoin to reclaim $125,000 by late 2026, $150,000 by mid-2027, and $300,000 at the next cycle peak in 2029.
When asked the reason behind this logic, Wall Street research company Bernstein, Chhugani is framing this call around what he terms the "debasement trade." Bernstein’s broader argument is that the macro environment Bitcoin is entering looks very different from the one investors have been used to. The 40-year stretch of falling interest rates is over, while government debt has climbed to record levels. That leaves policymakers with fewer easy options, and Bernstein expects currency debasement to become part of the way governments deal with those debts.
That’s where the firm sees Bitcoin fitting in. Rather than treating it purely as a speculative asset, Bernstein views Bitcoin as a scarce hedge that could increasingly sit alongside gold. Gold itself has already pushed above $4,000 an ounce and hit a new record.
One of the more interesting numbers in the note is the estimate that around 60% of Bitcoin holders don't sell even when the market falls more than 50%. That helps explain why Bernstein thinks this cycle has been relatively restrained so far. Previous Bitcoin cycles saw drawdowns of 75% to 90%, while the current one has fallen roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak.
That doesn't mean Bitcoin can't fall further. But if a large share of holders really are willing to sit through those kinds of losses without selling, it changes how severe a cycle correction can become and it's a big part of Bernstein's argument for where the market could go next.
The valuation method behind that forecast is actually pretty interesting because Bernstein isn't simply projecting Bitcoin higher because the market has gone up before. It values Bitcoin against its marginal production cost basically, what it costs the least efficient miners to produce a new coin. In Bernstein's model, that multiple gradually comes down, from 1.4 times at the 2025 peak to around 1.2 times by 2033. So even with Bitcoin reaching much higher prices, the model assumes its premium over production costs will actually shrink as the market matures.
There’s also another referenced institutional signal showing up. BlackRock’s IBIT has reportedly taken in around $5 billion through tax-deferred Bitcoin-to-ETF swaps, suggesting some long-term holders are moving their exposure into regulated ETFs rather than simply selling their coins. And the debasement argument is getting harder to ignore on Wall Street.
Crypto investors like Anthony Pompliano have argued recently that institutional desks aren't spending as much time debating whether currency debasement is coming, they're instead positioning for it.
Strategy is where the picture gets a little more complicated. Bernstein raised its Bitcoin outlook but still cut its price target for MSTR from $450 to $350, mainly because of concerns around further equity dilution. Which means being bullish on Bitcoin doesn't automatically make every company holding Bitcoin a good bet.